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No. 2 Michigan and No. 13 Iowa headline the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis to decide the conference champion and a possible College Football Playoff berth. The Wolverines come into the game off what’s easily the biggest win for the program in more than a decade, and certainly the Jim Harbaugh era, as it beat rival Ohio State 42-27 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was Michigan’s first win over the hated Buckeyes since 2011 and only the fourth time since 2000.
Still, the Wolverines could only celebrate the win for so long because if they want to finish the job and earn their first berth in the College Football Playoff, they need to get by a tough Iowa team.
The Hawkeyes started the season strong, opening 6-0 and reaching the No. 2 spot in the AP Poll before losing consecutive games against Purdue and Wisconsin. Those two losses not only knocked the Hawkeyes out of playoff consideration themselves but nearly cost them a chance to win the Big Ten too. The Hawkeyes have won four straight since, including a dramatic and unlikely comeback against Nebraska last week. That win, followed by Wisconsin’s loss to Minnesota the next day, clinched Iowa’s trip to Indianapolis. While it’s improbable the Hawkeyes can reach the playoff, a win in this game would send them to the Rose Bowl.
This is Michigan’s first Big Ten Championship appearance: This might come as something of a surprise, considering Michigan’s history within both the Big Ten and the history of college football, but the school with the second-most wins in college football history (949 to Alabama’s 954) has never played for a Big Ten title in the championship game era. The first Big Ten Championship was in 2011 and was played between Wisconsin and rival Michigan State. It was the first of three appearances for the Spartans, and Michigan is the eighth Big Ten team to reach the game.
The Wolverines are looking to win their first Big Ten title since splitting it in 2004. This will be Iowa’s second appearance in the game, after losing to Michigan State 16-13 in 2015. The Hawkeyes are hoping to win their first conference championship since, yes, that’s right: 2004, when the Hawkeyes and Wolverines were co-champions.
Hassan Haskins is one touchdown away from setting a Michigan record: Haskins spent the bulk of the season splitting carries with Blake Corum, but with Corum banged up a little over the last month, he’s taken on a larger role and excelled. Haskins rushed for 571 yards and eight touchdowns in four November games, including five touchdowns in last week’s upset win over rival Ohio State. This season, Haskins now has 18 rushing touchdowns, tying him for second all-time in Michigan history with Anthony Thomas (2000) and Chris Perry (2003). If Haskins scores a rushing touchdown against Iowa, he will tie Ron Johnson, who rushed for 19 in 1968. Two more (either against Iowa or in a bowl game), and Haskins will set a new school record.
Iowa’s defense has forced 28 turnovers this season: The Hawkeyes defense lives in turnovers, and they do it consistently. The 28 forced turnovers in 2021 are the third-most in the country, behind only Cincinnati (32) and Middle Tennessee (31). They’re also an excellent indicator of how a game will end for the Hawkeyes. Of the 28 forced turnovers, 27 have come in Iowa’s 10 wins (2.7 per game), meaning only one has come in its two losses. It makes sense, as the Hawkeyes do not have an explosive offense and have a much easier time scoring points when their defense gives them a short field.
Date: Saturday, Dec. 4 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis
TV: Fox | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
It’s hard for me to go against the Wolverines here. It’s not that I don’t have plenty of respect for the Hawkeyes, it’s that this is a bad matchup for them. Michigan is essentially Iowa on steroids. It has an excellent defense and strong special teams, but where the two differ most is on offense. Michigan has one, Iowa doesn’t. Given Iowa’s inability to move the ball this year, it’s hard for me to buy into the idea they’ll suddenly find success against a Michigan defense that held an explosive Ohio State offense in check. Plus, Iowa thrives on turnovers, and Michigan has turned the ball over only nine times. Only five teams in the country have fewer. Lay it with the maize and blue. Prediction: Michigan (-10.5)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence during Championship Week, and which two underdogs will win outright? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,700 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.
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Nvidia: Quantitatively Speaking Still Overvalued – Seeking Alpha
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News
This is my first article about NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). I readily admit that I do not fully understand the specifics of the company and what investors see hidden in it. Therefore, at this stage, I offer a comprehensive, quantitative analysis of the company’s fundamental value.
The easiest way to get a first idea of the adequacy of the company’s current price is to look at the dynamics of its capitalization in the context of the dynamics of key results. As a rule, this allows you to identify persistent regressions.
Based on the long-term relationship between the revenue TTM absolute size and the company’s capitalization, NVIDIA’s current price is somewhat overvalued:
The same is true for the relationship based on the EPS TTM absolute size:
On the other side, over the past seven years, NVIDIA has shown a direct relationship between the rate of revenue growth and its P/S multiple. It should be noted that there is no similar qualitative relationship between EPS and earnings growth rate. In my opinion, this means that the rate of revenue growth is now a key driver of capitalization.
In the context of the last model, the company is now also overvalued. But more importantly, the expectation of a decrease in the revenue growth rate indicates a potential decrease in the P/S multiple in the coming quarters.
So, having determined that revenue is a key driver of company capitalization, we can build a general model that determines the company’s balanced price:
Under this approach, NVIDIA’s modeled capitalization is lower than the actual one within about two standard deviations. And the nearest forecast also does not justify the current price of the company.
Using elements of machine learning, I analyzed many options for comparative assessment of NVIDIA through multiples. As a result, I found only three models that allow a more or less reasonable judgment of the relative value of the company. To my surprise, all of these models are based on growth-adjusted multiples. This suggests that growth is a determining factor in the level of NVIDIA multiples.
A comparative valuation of NVIDIA through the forward P/E (next FY) to growth multiple indicates that the company is undervalued by 18%. But the quality of this model is not high enough:
Judging by the proposed multiples, I cannot make an unambiguous conclusion. The only thing that can be stated is that the company’s growth rate is a determining factor in the level of NVIDIA multiples. The slowdown should significantly reduce the level of its multiples.
When predicting NVIDIA’s revenue for the next ten years, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. According to consensus forecasts, in the next decade, the company’s annual revenue will exceed $160 billion.
NVIDIA’s operating margin has reached 35% in the last quarter. This is close to the historical maximum of the company. But the model is based on the assumption that the operating margin over the next 10 years will gradually decline to 30% in the terminal year. This is a standard approach based on the likely increase in competition.
Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:
Here’s the model itself:
(in high resolution)
The DCF-based target price of NVIDIA’s shares is $233, offering 12% downside. At the same time, in my opinion, I considered a relatively positive scenario for the future development of the company.
Looking at NVIDIA in the context of free cash flow, I want to draw your attention to one important indicator – the free cash flow yield. It shows how much the company generates free cash flow per dollar of its market price.
Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow TTM / Market Capitalization
I compared this figure of NVIDIA with other technology companies and closest competitors. Alas, the company’s figure is the lowest:
The free cash flow that NVIDIA generates for every dollar of its capitalization is about 1%. This is lower than the US 10-year treasury yield. I don’t even compare with inflation. In general, this is a wake-up call for an investor.
From October to November last year, NVIDIA’s share price rose nearly 80%. During this period, two gaps were recorded. These gaps have defined strong support levels. And the first of these levels seems to have already been broken. In my opinion, before the level of the second support is reached, it is premature to talk about the completion of the correction.
I do not share the optimism of those who believe that NVIDIA is an extremely attractive investment at its current price. I won’t jump to conclusions about the company’s long-term potential just yet, but it’s highly likely that the decline will continue in the short term.
This article was written by
Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Sony's PlayStation Direct initiative will let lucky users buy 'limited' PS5 stock – TechRadar
How to Watch UCLA vs. Utah in Men's College Basketball: Live Stream, TV Channel, Start Time – CalBearsMaven
UCLA is 4-0 on the road this season and won four of its last five game against Utah. The Utes will need to play their best game of the season to have a chance at beating the Bruins.
How to Watch UCLA vs. Utah in College Basketball Today:
Game Date: Jan. 20, 2022
Game Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX Sports 1
Live stream the UCLA vs. Utah game on fuboTV: Start with a 7-day free trial!
Utah (8-10, 1-7) lost in heartbreaking fashion against Arizona State in its last game. The Sun Devils hit a shot with 4.6 seconds remaining in the game to win 64-62.
Three players scored in double figures, but the Utes have struggled on the offensive end the entire season. They have failed to score more than 70 points in five straight games. However, Utah will get a boost when leading scorer Branden Carlson, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, returns to the lineup.
Meanwhile, UCLA (11-2, 3-1) has been nearly impossible to beat since its loss to No. 1 Gonzaga in November. The only loss the Bruins have suffered came last Thursday in overtime against Oregon. They bounced back with an 81-65 win over Oregon State last Saturday, trailing for less than a minute in the game.
Johnny Juzang leads UCLA with 17.2 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. The Bruins have been without Jaime Jaquez Jr., who is questionable for this contest.
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