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UTEP @ UAB
Current Records: UTEP 7-4; UAB 7-4
After two games on the road, the UAB Blazers are heading back home. UAB and the UTEP Miners will face off in a Conference USA battle at 2 p.m. ET Friday at Protective Stadium. Both teams might be coming in a bit winded after having run the length of the field multiple times in their most recent games.
The Blazers might have drawn first blood against the UTSA Roadrunners last week, but it was UTSA who got the last laugh. It was a hard-fought game, but UAB had to settle for a 34-31 defeat against UTSA. Despite their loss, UAB got to see several of their players rise to the challenge and make noteworthy plays. RB DeWayne McBride, who rushed for one TD and 144 yards on 24 carries, was the best among equals.
The UAB defensive unit accumulated five sacks for a loss of 54 yards. It was a group effort with six guys contributing.
Meanwhile, UTEP beat the Rice Owls 38-28 last week. The Miners’ RB Ronald Awatt did his thing and picked up 119 yards on the ground on nine carries. Awatt’s longest run was for 74 yards in the fourth quarter.
The Blazers are the favorite in this one, with an expected 13.5-point margin of victory. They might be worth taking a chance on against the spread as they are currently on a three-game streak of ATS wins.
UAB and UTEP now sit at an identical 7-4. A pair of defensive stats to keep in the back of your head while watching: UAB is stumbling into the contest with the 222nd most passing touchdowns allowed in the nation, having given up 23 on the season. The Miners have experienced some struggles of their own as they are 183rd worst in the nation in rushing touchdowns allowed, with 16 on the season. It’s possible one of these Achilles’ heels will wind up tripping the losing team up.
The Blazers are a big 13.5-point favorite against the Miners, according to the latest college football odds.
The oddsmakers had a good feel for the line for this one, as the game opened with the Blazers as a 13-point favorite.
See college football picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.
UAB have won all of the games they’ve played against UTEP in the last five years.
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Stellaris 2 Release Date: PS4, PS5, Xbox, PC, Switch – Game Revolution
Grand strategy games are in relatively short supply, which is why Stellaris is such an important title. Even better, Paradox’s 4X game is one of very few available on modern home consoles. Will the same be true of Stellaris 2? Is a sequel actually in development, and will it release for Switch in addition to Xbox and PlayStation?
Paradox Development Studio has yet to confirm Stellaris 2, so there is no release date set. In fact, there’s no confirmation that Stellaris will get a numbered sequel at all. Assuming it does happen, we can expect to learn more about a launch date after the game is announced.
For now, it seems the team at Paradox is still focused on the original game. After all, it took almost three years for Stellaris to move from PC to home consoles, hitting PS4 and Xbox One early in 2019. The Series X/S version only arrived in March of last year.
That time hasn’t been spent solely on porting, either. The team has released several DLC packs and expansions, including the Nemesis expansion which released last year. Development is ongoing, and fans can check out the latest details over on the official Stellaris forums.
Given that Stellaris eventually landed on consoles, a PlayStation 4, PS5, or Xbox Series X/S release would make sense. Of course, it could be a matter of timing, since it took so to release console ports before.
Admittedly, a Nintendo Switch release for Stellaris 2 is very unlikely. Stellaris isn’t on the Switch, and it’s doubtful that Nintendo’s handheld could run it properly. And, again, Stellaris 2 hasn’t been confirmed, so who knows if we’ll even be playing the Switch by the time it might release.
Stellaris 2 doesn’t have a release date or any known platforms, as the game itself hasn’t been announced. Until we hear otherwise, the crew at Paradox Development Studio will continue its ongoing work on the Stellaris that does exist, which is available on PC, PS4, Xbox One, and the Series X/S.
Nvidia: Quantitatively Speaking Still Overvalued – Seeking Alpha
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News
This is my first article about NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA). I readily admit that I do not fully understand the specifics of the company and what investors see hidden in it. Therefore, at this stage, I offer a comprehensive, quantitative analysis of the company’s fundamental value.
The easiest way to get a first idea of the adequacy of the company’s current price is to look at the dynamics of its capitalization in the context of the dynamics of key results. As a rule, this allows you to identify persistent regressions.
Based on the long-term relationship between the revenue TTM absolute size and the company’s capitalization, NVIDIA’s current price is somewhat overvalued:
The same is true for the relationship based on the EPS TTM absolute size:
On the other side, over the past seven years, NVIDIA has shown a direct relationship between the rate of revenue growth and its P/S multiple. It should be noted that there is no similar qualitative relationship between EPS and earnings growth rate. In my opinion, this means that the rate of revenue growth is now a key driver of capitalization.
In the context of the last model, the company is now also overvalued. But more importantly, the expectation of a decrease in the revenue growth rate indicates a potential decrease in the P/S multiple in the coming quarters.
So, having determined that revenue is a key driver of company capitalization, we can build a general model that determines the company’s balanced price:
Under this approach, NVIDIA’s modeled capitalization is lower than the actual one within about two standard deviations. And the nearest forecast also does not justify the current price of the company.
Using elements of machine learning, I analyzed many options for comparative assessment of NVIDIA through multiples. As a result, I found only three models that allow a more or less reasonable judgment of the relative value of the company. To my surprise, all of these models are based on growth-adjusted multiples. This suggests that growth is a determining factor in the level of NVIDIA multiples.
A comparative valuation of NVIDIA through the forward P/E (next FY) to growth multiple indicates that the company is undervalued by 18%. But the quality of this model is not high enough:
Judging by the proposed multiples, I cannot make an unambiguous conclusion. The only thing that can be stated is that the company’s growth rate is a determining factor in the level of NVIDIA multiples. The slowdown should significantly reduce the level of its multiples.
When predicting NVIDIA’s revenue for the next ten years, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. According to consensus forecasts, in the next decade, the company’s annual revenue will exceed $160 billion.
NVIDIA’s operating margin has reached 35% in the last quarter. This is close to the historical maximum of the company. But the model is based on the assumption that the operating margin over the next 10 years will gradually decline to 30% in the terminal year. This is a standard approach based on the likely increase in competition.
Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:
Here’s the model itself:
(in high resolution)
The DCF-based target price of NVIDIA’s shares is $233, offering 12% downside. At the same time, in my opinion, I considered a relatively positive scenario for the future development of the company.
Looking at NVIDIA in the context of free cash flow, I want to draw your attention to one important indicator – the free cash flow yield. It shows how much the company generates free cash flow per dollar of its market price.
Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow TTM / Market Capitalization
I compared this figure of NVIDIA with other technology companies and closest competitors. Alas, the company’s figure is the lowest:
The free cash flow that NVIDIA generates for every dollar of its capitalization is about 1%. This is lower than the US 10-year treasury yield. I don’t even compare with inflation. In general, this is a wake-up call for an investor.
From October to November last year, NVIDIA’s share price rose nearly 80%. During this period, two gaps were recorded. These gaps have defined strong support levels. And the first of these levels seems to have already been broken. In my opinion, before the level of the second support is reached, it is premature to talk about the completion of the correction.
I do not share the optimism of those who believe that NVIDIA is an extremely attractive investment at its current price. I won’t jump to conclusions about the company’s long-term potential just yet, but it’s highly likely that the decline will continue in the short term.
This article was written by
Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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